Potential Consequences of US Military Action Against Iran
As tensions rise between the US and Iran, speculation about potential military action has intensified. The US appears poised to strike Iran within days, but while the potential targets are largely predictable, the outcomes remain uncertain. This article outlines seven possible scenarios that could unfold if President Trump decides to order US forces to attack Iran.
1. Targeted, Surgical Strikes, Minimal Civilian Casualties
One possibility is that US air and naval forces engage in precise strikes targeting Iran's military bases and facilities, leading to the potential toppling of the already weakened regime and a transition to democracy. However, historical precedents in Iraq and Libya have shown that such outcomes often lead to chaos rather than stability.
2. Regime Survives But Moderates Its Policies
The "Venezuelan model" scenario could see the Iranian regime surviving US military action but being compelled to temper its aggressive policies and curb its support for regional militias. However, given the leadership's longstanding defiance, this outcome seems unlikely.
3. Regime Collapses, Replaced by Military Rule
This scenario, deemed the most probable, suggests that a weakened regime could be replaced by a military government dominated by IRGC figures. The ongoing protests and the regime's unpopularity may not be enough to facilitate a successful overthrow of the current leadership.
4. Iran Retaliates by Attacking US Forces and Neighbours
In retaliation, Iran could attack US military bases in the region and potentially strike at nations perceived as complicit in a US assault. Iranians have vowed to hit back hard, threatening the stability of neighboring countries, particularly those in the Gulf.
5. Iran Retaliates by Laying Mines in the Gulf
Another potential response could involve deploying sea mines in strategic shipping lanes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global oil transport. Such actions would likely disrupt world trade and significantly affect oil prices.
6. Iran Retaliates, Sinking a US Warship
While considered unlikely, a scenario in which Iran successfully sinks a US warship would represent a considerable humiliation for the United States and escalate tensions rapidly. The IRGC has been rehearsing methods of asymmetric warfare to counter US naval superiority.
7. Regime Collapses, Replaced by Chaos
Finally, if the regime collapses, the resulting power vacuum could lead to chaos, civil war, and ethnic conflicts within Iran. The ramifications could extend beyond Iran, destabilizing the entire region and prompting a major humanitarian crisis.
Each of these scenarios presents complex implications for regional stability and international relations, underscoring the unpredictable and potentially damaging consequences of military intervention in Iran.
