With Lebanon, again, engulfed by war, I remember a meeting I had with President Joseph Aoun at the Baabda Palace, a modernist building at the top of a hill overlooking Beirut last August.
Aoun, a former army chief, took office after a devastating war between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militia and political party that is backed by Iran. At that point, Hezbollah had been weakened and was isolated at home and Aoun had vowed to disarm it. The seemingly intractable issue over Hezbollah's weapons has long divided Lebanon, but Aoun appeared to believe he could solve it. I was born an optimist, he told me.
At the time we met, a fragile ceasefire was in place in Lebanon. This deal had ended the war between Israel and Hezbollah in November 2024, but Israel was carrying out near-daily attacks on what it described as people and targets linked to the group. In some parts of the country, the conflict had never stopped. Even from my home in east Beirut I could occasionally hear the buzz of Israeli drones circling overhead.
For Hezbollah's supporters, the group is their only protection against Israel, which they see as an enemy intent on capturing Lebanese land. Opponents accuse Hezbollah, which is a Shia Muslim group, of defending the interests of its Iranian patron, dragging the country into unwanted and unnecessary wars.
President Aoun, hoping to stop the bloodshed, proposed to negotiate directly with Israel, a significant step for two countries that do not even recognise each other. Israel ignored the offer until last week, after the US agreed a ceasefire with Iran and Israel carried out widespread air strikes that killed more than 300 people in just one day in Lebanon.
A meeting between ambassadors from both countries, expected to focus on a ceasefire here, is scheduled to take place later on Tuesday in Washington. With very limited influence over Hezbollah, what can the Lebanese government do? And what are the chances of finding lasting peace?
Since coming to power, President Aoun has defended a policy he calls the state monopoly on arms. As part of the ceasefire deal in 2024, Hezbollah had agreed to remove its fighters and weapons from southern Lebanon which, for decades, had effectively been under the group's control. Hezbollah also holds sway over Beirut's southern suburbs, known as Dahieh, and the eastern Bekaa Valley, where part of its arsenal is located. However, Naim Qassem, its secretary-general, has rejected discussing a full, nationwide disarmament.
Last year, I reported from southern Lebanon on how communities were living under fear from the constant Israeli attacks, and some appeared to question Hezbollah's strategy. Armed resistance is key in Hezbollah's raison d'être – its flag features a hand carrying an assault rifle. The group is part of what Iran calls the Axis of Resistance, an alliance of armed factions that include Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank, and the Houthis in Yemen.
The situation has worsened for millions across Lebanon. Over 1.2 million people have been displaced since the start of the conflict, most of them from Shia communities. This has exacerbated sectarian tensions. As conflicts continue and the humanitarian crisis deepens, the prospects for peace remain tenuous.
